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Five Things to Watch on Saturday | Texans vs. Chiefs

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KANSAS CITY, Mo. (Chiefs.com) – The Kansas City Chiefs kick off the 2024 postseason on Saturday with a matchup against the Houston Texans.

Here’s what to keep in mind heading into game day.

1. Here’s a look at the final injury report for both teams.

The Chiefs have the look of a team that just enjoyed a substantial break heading into the postseason. In fact, no player on the active roster was even limited in practice this week. That means safety Chamarri Conner (shoulder), defensive lineman Chris Jones (calf), tailback Isiah Pacheco (ribs) and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee) – all of whom missed time in practice over the last few weeks – appear to be good to go.

Additionally, cornerback Jaylen Watson (ankle) – who hasn’t played since Week 7 – is listed as “Questionable” for Saturday after participating fully in the Chiefs’ week of practice. The Chiefs will need to activate Watson from Injured Reserve if he is to play against Houston.

As for the Texans, a storyline to watch will be the status of tailback Joe Mixon, who appeared to suffer an ankle injury during practice on Wednesday. Mixon – who didn’t practice on Thursday and is officially listed as “Questionable” for the game – rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries last week, and it’s no secret that his effectiveness has been crucial to the Texans’ success. In simple terms, when Mixon has topped 100 rushing yards this season, Houston is 6-2. When he hasn’t, the Texans are 3-4.

Houston also listed veteran wide receiver Robert Woods (hip), who caught two passes for 22 yards last week against Los Angeles, as “Questionable” for Saturday. Woods hauled in three passes for 19 yards back in Week 16 against Kansas City. Additionally, the Texans will be missing wide receiver Tank Dell, who tallied seven grabs for 98 yards and a touchdown before suffering a knee injury against Kansas City in Week 16. Dell was placed on Injured Reserve in the days that followed.

Starting right guard Shaq Mason, meanwhile, appears to be good to go after missing the Texans’ last three games. Mason actually suffered his knee injury in Week 16 against Kansas City and hasn’t played since. It remains to be seen if Mason will start on Saturday, but he isn’t carrying an injury designation into the game.

Defensively, Houston listed linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair as “Questionable” for Saturday with a knee injury. Al-Shaair, who racked up 70 tackles in 11 games this season, didn’t play against the Chiefs back in Week 16 due to a league suspension.

2. Houston has thrived off takeaways all season long.

A key to the Texans’ success this season has been their ability to generate turnovers. Houston tallied 29 takeaways this season – the fifth-most of any team in the NFL – and off those, the Texans scored 100 points. That’s a big number, and it represented a league-high 26.9% of the Texans’ point total for the year. In other words, without the takeaway points, Houston averaged just 16.0 points-per-game this season.

That formula was at work last week, too. The Texans recorded four takeaways (plus a blocked extra-point) against the Chargers, directly leading to 12 of Houston’s 32 total points.

So, a major key – and maybe the top priority – for the Chiefs on Saturday must be ball security. Kansas City didn’t turn the ball over in the Chiefs’ earlier matchup with the Texans, and overall, Kansas City hasn’t committed a single giveaway since Week 12. That’s a span of seven games without a turnover, matching the longest streak for any team in the Super Bowl Era.

If the Chiefs are to advance on Saturday, maintaining that trend will be crucial.

3. The Chiefs utilized a quick passing game to counter the Texans’ pass-rush in Week 16.

Houston racked up the fourth-most sacks (49) of any team in the NFL this season, and nearly half of that production was courtesy of two players: edge-rushers Danielle Hunter (12) and Will Anderson Jr. (11). It’s one of the top tandems in the league, but neither sacked Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes back in Week 16 due in part to a gameplan that emphasized a quick passing attack.

Mahomes’ average time to throw in that matchup was just 2.48 seconds, which represented his third-quickest time to throw on the season. Only his performances against Pittsburgh (2.33 seconds) and Atlanta (2.46 seconds) featured quicker time-to-throw averages. For context, Mahomes’ average for the season was 2.77 seconds, and only one quarterback – Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa – averaged fewer than 2.5 seconds among quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks.

That quick passing attack in Week 16 was effective for two reasons:

  • It marginalized the impact Hunter and Anderson could wreak on the passing game
  • Four different Chiefs recorded at least 25 yards after-the-catch

That second point is interesting because Houston actually yielded the highest average yards after-the-catch tally in the league this season at 6.5. Kansas City certainly added to that average in Week 16, as wide receiver Xavier Worthy (59 yards), tailback Samaje Perine (50 yards), wide receiver Hollywood Brown (35 yards) and tailback Kareem Hunt (26 yards) each recorded the bulk of their damage after catching the ball.

4. Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times during the regular season.

Stroud is one of the top young quarterbacks in the NFL, but something he’s had to deal with throughout the year has been pressure – and a lot of it. Stroud was sacked 52 times during the regular season – only the Bears’ Caleb Williams was sacked more – and Stroud’s eight games in which he was sacked at least four times led all players.

There’s a pretty clear divide in Stroud’s game-by-game sack totals, too. When he has been sacked four or more times this year, the Texans are just 2-6. When sacked three or fewer times, however, Stroud and the Texans are an impressive 9-1. Fittingly, that one loss was to Kansas City back in Week 16. The Chiefs only recorded two sacks in that game, but for what it’s worth, Kansas City pressured Stroud on nearly 49% of his total dropbacks.

So, something to watch on Saturday will be if the Chiefs can convert a higher portion of those pressures into sacks.

5. Patrick Mahomes could make some more NFL postseason history on Saturday.

Mahomes would likely be the first to deflect any individual praise, but his career results in the postseason are approaching some historic milestones.

First, Mahomes will make his 19th career postseason start on Saturday. He owns a 15-3 record in his previous 18 starts, marking the third-most playoff victories for any starting quarterback in NFL history. Only Tom Brady (35) and Joe Montana (16) tallied more, and with a win on Saturday, Mahomes would match Montana for the second-most in NFL postseason history.

Additionally, Mahomes’ 41 passing touchdowns in the playoffs are already the fifth-most in NFL history. Only Brady (88), Montana (45), Aaron Rodgers (45) and Brett Favre (44) threw more. So, with five touchdown passes this postseason, Mahomes would take over sole possession of second-place on that list behind only Brady, and keep in mind, Mahomes is just 29 years old.

Of course, Mahomes has his sights on much more than just individual playoff records. The Chiefs have an opportunity to achieve something that’s never been done before this postseason, and that journey begins on Saturday against Houston.

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